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The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our
next new store in Plainville, which has many such residents. Plainville merchants report
that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever than ever, and the weigh training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers : Plainville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a " fitness for life " program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.
In this memorandum, the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and health-related products, recommends that the company should open its next new store in
Plainville. To support this recommendation, the president cites the facts that sales of exercise
shoes and clothing in Plainville are at all-time highs, and the fact that the local health club is more popular than ever. The author also points out that Plainville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a a fitness program. Based on these facts, the vice president assumes that residents in Plainville are highly concerned with living healthy lives and will therefore be interested in buying Nature's Way's products according to their previous experience. Careful
examination of these supporting facts, however, reveals that once of them lend credible support
to the vice president's recommendation.
In the first place, the argument is based on the assumption that Plainville residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives and will prefer Nature's Way's health food and other health-related products. However, the facts the vice president cited fail to lend credible support to this assumption. All time high sales of running shoes and exercise clothing do not necessarily mean that Plainville residents would be interested in exercising. It is entirely possible that the all-time high sales are caused by increasing sales by tourists. It is also possible that Plainville residents prefer wearing sportswear, as it is more comfortable, or maybe less expensive compared to
other types of clothing. Without ruling out other possible reasons for the all-time high sales, the vice president cannot justify the assumption that Plainville are exercising regularly, let alone that they would be interested in buying Nature's Way's products. Even if Palinville residents are exercising regularly, the vice president fails to provide further evidence that these residents are concerned with healthy lives and are interested in buying health food and health-related products. It is highly likely that aside from exercising, Plainville residents have little interest in leading a healthy lifestyle. In fact, perhaps as a result of regular exercise they believe they are sufficiently fit and healthy do not need a healthy diet.
In the second place, the fact that the local health club has more members than before is little indication that Plainville residents live much healthier lives now. Although the numbers are increasing, their attitude towards leading a healthy live still can not represent the general
attitude of Plainville residents as the vice president does not mention how many numbers the
club now has. Similarly, the popularity of weight training and aerobics classes does not necessarily suggest these members will buy Nature's Way's product. In other words, the mere fact that the residents who are interested in doing some exercise are increasing is insufficient evidence to make the conclusion that Nature's Way will have more customers and thus more profits.
Thirdly, the fact that a " fitness for life " program is mandatory for Plainville's school children is insufficient evidence that the schoolchildren will inevitably become customers of Nature' Way. We are informed that the children are required to attend the program, however, mandatory participation is no indication of genuine interest in health or fitness. Even granted their enthusiasm for regular exercise at the moment, the author fails to convince us that they would buy healthy foods and other health-related products. Many years must pass before these children will be old enough to make buying decisions when it comes to food and health-related products. Their interests and habits might change dramatically during these years. It is entirely possible that they will prefer an unhealthy lifestyle - as a reaction to the healthy habits imposed upon them now. Meanwhile, the prevailing lifestyle of the whole society might also change and thus change their interests and preferences.
Finally, even assuming that Plainville residents show a strong interest in consuming health foods and health-related products, the vice president's underlying assumption that their new store in Plainville will be profitable is still unfounded. The argument is based on previous experience which infers that the proposed store in Plainville will be profitable. However, the information collected in the past may not be reliable evidence as a reference for the future. It is entirely possible that peoples consuming preferences will change and the residents in Plainville will not like health-related products in the foreseeable future, there is no evidence to show that Plainville
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