Sunday, April 7, 2013

Nippon Economy

During 1945-1990, Japan was the most stable country in economy and politic, after the collapse of Soviet Union the environment began to change, the following will subvert your knowledge.

Preface :

After WWII, Japan built their economy from the rubble to the world's second largest GDP,
people always though that was miracle, but for me, the true reason was Japan based on
the luck. The following paragraph which I will explore how lucky Nippon was ! I divided status
into two economy and politics realms.

1945 -1950

Japan was in the ruin caused by two atomic bombs, it was devastating and terrible.

1950 - 1960

First, after WWII the world split into totally different ideologies, capitalism and communism.
In Asia, the pivot was Soviet Union, they started to permeate communism to every Asian
country.  Japan became the country which used to resist the communism, the outbreak of
Korea War stimulated the Japanese heavy industry, the classic example was TOYOTA company, before Korea Was it only produced 300 vehicles, during Korea War it produced
5000 vehicles, this event brought TOYOTA from the brink of bankrupt to the prosper future.

1960 - 1970

1970 - 1980

1980 -1990

1990 - 2000

2000 - 2010

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崇拜日本的人總是這樣說 :
  1. 日本從二戰廢墟變成世界 GDP 第二,創造經濟奇蹟。
    但他們忘了說冷戰,韓戰...
  2. 日本終身雇用制,社會合諧。
    但是他們忘了說終身雇用制式拿來防止共產擴張,沒有終身雇用制,就要有勞工工會,工會勢力一旦過大就會鬧革命,請看 October Revolution.
  3. 日本追求小細節(也就是龜毛)。
    但是他們忘了說,追求 conformity 的日本,沒有創新和關鍵性技術,員工當然只能改那一些小細節,不改的話的被罵沒在做事情。
  4. 日本很乾淨。
    但是他們忘了說,在那ㄧ個緯度的所有國家都還蠻乾燥的,所以比較容易保持乾淨。
During the cold war, Japan was the country used against the communism.

日本 1945 - 1990 是亞洲政治經濟最穩的國家 (蘇聯冷戰、韓國韓戰、中國文革、台灣戒嚴、越南越戰),所以日本也成了有經濟沒政治的國家了(政治最強是二戰時期)。

日本是唯一沒又被赤化的亞洲國家。二戰結束後日本成為美國的反共基地,因此日本不僅沒有像 德國賠錢給當時入侵的國家,又在韓戰中得了一筆戰爭財, 恢復整個日本重工業,
(三菱重工、富士重工、川崎重工),最具代表就是豐田 Toyota。

History of Toyota
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Toyota
Postwar growth : TOYOTA韓戰前只生產300量瀕臨破產,韓戰爆發生產5000量,接下來日本才有資金更新設備。

因為日本政治穩定,保證了人民不會被政治迫害,進而思想言論自由,因此可以大量翻譯歐美先進科技的原文書或資料,確保日本可以領先亞洲其他各國。簡單的說,日本拿落後歐美 2~3年的技術,就足以打片全亞洲,因為當時的資訊不像現在這的流通,有網路、手機...

再來說電子產品,以前是亞洲都沒別人生產(因為冷戰、共產擴張),只有日本生產,所以日本怎麼設計都賣的出去。如勝利牌電視、國際牌...。
現在說起手機,Apple,Samsung,HTC,Nokia,Sony ...競爭對手太多了。

原因如下 :

1945 ~ 1990,Soviet Union 時期,亞洲除了日本其他國家都是封閉的。1990 蘇聯解體,亞洲其它國家進入市場競爭,接下來所產品分別為 高、中、低階,中低階產品首先被中國取代掉(1990 - present),中高階被迫和台灣、韓國競爭 (2000 ~ present),所以日本 1990 ~ 2000,短短10年換了9個首相,這就如同棒球隊沒有好投手,換哪一個教練都是一樣。

所以日本現在強的公司是 :

Tokyo electron,
村田製作所(陶瓷電容器),
Komatsu Limited,Mazak...

以上這些都高階工具母機,重型機具是目前日本最具競爭力的公司,韓國到目前都沒有影響這些公司的能力。因為這些高階技術很多都是從 1945 ~ 1990 (沒競爭對手再加上大量吸收歐美技術) 一點一滴累積下來的 (譬如 Shinkansen 難道5~10年發展就能跑 320 km/h ?? 歷經5代約 40~50 年的發展,才有今天的高鐵),短時間要取代它極為困難。

Shinkansen,歷經5代約 40~50 年的發展,從 220km/h ~ 320 km/h。

再說發明的話,日本只善於改良而已。

汽車(TOYOTA,HONDA...); 德國人發明
摩托車(YAMAHA,HONDA); 德國人發明
照相機(CANON,NIKON); 最早CCD感光元件也不是日本人想出來的。
機器人(ASIMO or 工業用); 美國人 George Devol發明。
高鐵(Shinkansen); 馬達是英國人 Michael Faraday 發明 (電生磁 磁生電)。

這五項夠具代表吧 !告訴我哪項是日本第一個想出來的。

當人們說起 :

BMW,Benz 就想起德國;
Rolex 就想起瑞士;
Ferrari 想起義大利;
LV 想起法國;
Rolls-Royce, Aston Martin 想起英國。

當人們現在說起日本,請問大家想起什麼 ? (不要想歪) Lost Decade、乾淨的道路 ...
以前是電器產品現在沒了,剩下一些高階機台...

P.S 這是一個 Argument,welcome everybody to debate ! 找一些理由下個結論。

======================================================================

3.日本追求小細節(也就是龜毛)。
但是他們忘了說,追求 conformity 的日本,沒有創新和關鍵性技術,員工當然只能改那一些小細節,不改的話的被罵沒在做事情。

請看下圖 Sony第一件揚名立萬的商品 TR-55電晶體收音機(不是世界第一台電晶體聲音機),Regent TR-1 才是世界第一台電晶體收音機。
TR-55

TR-55

The TR-55, released in 1955, was Sony's first transistor radio, and the first to be made in Japan. The use of transistors rather than vacuum tubes allowed the device to be much smaller than earlier radios, and allowed them to be the first truly portable radio from Japan.

Technical specifications

The TR-55 used 5 transistors designed in house by Sony, the technology having been licensed from Bell Labs. This made Sony the first company to produce commercial transistor radios from the ground up: Regency had an earlier transistor radio but bought the transistors from Texas Instruments. Printed circuit boards were used, which was unusual for the time.

Transistor Radio 

Japanese history in the market

While on a trip to the United States in 1952, Masura Ibuka, founder of Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering Corporation (now Sony), discovered that AT&T was about to make licensing available for the transistor. Ibuka and his partner, physicist Akio Morita, convinced the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) to finance the
 $25,000 licensing fee (equivalent to $216,134 today).
For several months Ibuka traveled around the United States borrowing ideas from the American transistor manufacturers. Improving upon the ideas, Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering Corporation made its first functional transistor radio in 1954.[5] Within five years, Tokyo Telecommunications
Engineering Corporation grew from seven employees to approximately five hundred.

Other Japanese companies soon followed their entry into the American market and the grand total of electronic products exported from Japan in 1958 increased 2.5 times in comparison to 1957.[11]

我來做個補充,Sony第一件揚名立萬的商品 TR-55電晶體收音機,所以關鍵性技術是 Transistor ,Bell Laboratory研發出來的,重點來了,一台電晶體收音機最關鍵的技術是 transistor,請問一下 Sony 已經技術授權得到 transistor 的技術,那剩下來員工還能改良什麼 ? 是不是只剩外觀還有一些有的沒的改良(並不是說外觀不重要),就像一部汽車,已經學會
引擎和變速箱等重要結構,是不是只剩外觀(汽車外觀還會關係到 fluid mechanics,電子產品只要討喜就好)。

Reference : (Wikipedia)
TR-55
Transistor Radio

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The history of Toyota

Item 2. Special Demand Caused by Korean War


Model BMV Cargo Truck. Source : TOYOTA Global Website.

On June 25, 1950, the Army of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) crossed the 38th Parallel and invaded the Republic of Korea (South Korea). This was the start of the Korean War.

To rapidly supply equipment to the South Korean Army, industrial capacity in Japan-which was the closest country to the battlefront-was used, and as early as July 10, an inquiry concerning trucks was received from the procurement division of the Eighth United States Army. Toyota received an order for 1,000 Model BM trucks, and Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. and Toyota Motor Sales Co., Ltd. jointly entered into an agreement for their supply on July 31. The agreement called for 200 trucks to be delivered in August and 400 each in September and October. Toyota later received an order for 2,329 trucks on August 29 and an order for an additional 1,350 trucks on March 1, 1951, for a total of 4,679 Model BM trucks. The total value of these orders was 3.66 billion yen.

In response to this special demand, Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. increased its monthly production plan from 650 units to 1,000 units. The increase in production was implemented by having current employees work two hours overtime each day, and the planned shift from the Model BM truck to the Model MX truck was postponed until after the delivery of all BM trucks.

Toyota Motor Co., Ltd.'s business performance improved rapidly as a result of the Korean War special procurement demand. The situation was explained as follows in the 22nd Business Report (covering April to September 1950) as follows:

Although prices for materials, parts, tires, and so on repeatedly rose after the outbreak of the Korean War due to automobile sale pricing controls-which in the past were a major restraint on operations-were eliminated in the middle of April, we have been able to maintain profitability by adjusting automobile sales prices, and since the resolution of the labor dispute, results have been improving every month as production increases in response to demand.1

Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. fell into a condition of management crisis as a result of the effects from the Dodge Line and it was necessary to reduce personnel, but following the outbreak of the Korean War, business performance recovered and the company was able to take new steps forward.

Korea War saved Toyota company and established the root of this company, so Jap was
lucky to start the entrepreneur.

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Reference :

1. The history of Toyota. Wikipedia
2. Item 2. Special Demand Caused by Korean War

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